Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
4 million tons of cane sugar is produced in the U.S. each year. America consumes around 12.5 million tons of sugar, with the remainder made up by imports and sugar sourced from sugar beets. Experts said it would be “nearly impossible” for Coca-Cola to swap high-fructose corn syrup for cane sugar, as Trump pushed for last week. https://buff.ly/v1I8B5Z
Markets reflected cautious optimism last week, with continued strength in tech stocks and modest gains in the S&P 500. Long-term Treasury yields rose on concerns over fiscal pressures and reignited trade tensions. Oil prices declined and the dollar strengthened, signaling shifting global demand dynamics and sustained U.S. monetary tightness. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% in June, slightly above expectations, and core CPI increased 0.2%. The producer price index (PPI) was flat in June, below consensus expectations, and indicated that inflationary pressures on producers may be easing. Industrial production increased 0.3% in June, driven by an increase in the output of utilities. Manufacturing output also increased 0.1% in June, while mining decreased 0.3%, and capacity utilization rose slightly to 77.6%, although it remains 2 percentage points below its long-run average. Retail sales jumped in June, increasing 0.6% month-over-month, with retail sales excluding autos rising 0.5%. Import prices rose 0.1% in June; prices excluding oil also rose 0.1%. Export prices, both including and excluding agriculture, increased 0.5%. Business inventories remained flat in May, slightly above the expected -0.1%. Housing starts increased to 1.321 million units in June, and building permits rose to 1.396 million, both exceeding expectations. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey ticked up slightly to 61.8. Although low historically, the slight gain shows marginal improvement in household outlooks, likely aided by slowing inflation and a stable labor market. @Chmura Economics & Analytics
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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