Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Nearly all generations, income groups plan to pull back on holiday spend. Only Gen X plans to increase spending slightly, as consumers search for deals and trade down on brands and retailers, per a Deloitte report. https://www.retaildive.com/news/generations-income-groups-pull-back-holiday-spending/802975/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Issue:%202025-10-20%20Retail%20Dive%20Newsletter%20%5Bissue:77957%5D&utm_term=Retail%20Dive
Equities markets recovered last week as efforts to defuse U.S.–China trade tensions muted geopolitical uncertainty. In addition, worries about credit stresses in the regional banking sector were alleviated as it became clear that risks to the sector were not as widespread as previously feared. Treasury yields declined across the curve as dovish rhetoric from Fed officials increased expectations of rate cuts later this year and next year. The NFIB small business optimism index declined 2.0 points to 98.8. While still ahead of the long-term average of 98.0, uncertainty about future economic growth remains a key point of pressure on small businesses. Mortgage applications decreased week-over-week with the refinance index down 1% and the purchase index down 3%; however, they were up 59% and 20% year-over-year, respectively, suggesting that lower rates are driving a slight but steady recovery in the housing market. The NAHB housing market index rose to 37 in October from 32 in September, driven by expectations of single-family sales over the next six months. Regional Fed surveys showed a mixed outlook for the manufacturing sector. The New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index surged 19 points to 10.7 in October, due to increasing new orders and shipments, but the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index plunged 36 points to -12.8, its lowest reading since April, driven by weak shipments. Both the Empire State manufacturing index and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index cited increases in both input and output prices, putting upward pressure on inflation. The Federal Budget, released on Thursday, showed a $198 billion surplus, as increased customs duties offset interest and social security payments. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, containing anecdotal evidence across Fed districts, was also released last week. Districts reported little change in economic activity; however, lower labor demand and higher input prices due to tariffs continue to put pressure on businesses and households across the country. @Chmura Economics & Analytics
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive: