Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
Bloomberg: The bar for qualifying for an H-1B visa is rising. An entry level software engineer in San Francisco would need to be paid $162,000 a year to get one under a Trump administration proposal—almost 30% more than today. In Dallas, the minimum would jump to $113,000 and in New York to $132,000. CEBR: Since this is not tied to an exact SOC position, we are not able to analyze this statement well. In SF, entry-level computer software engineer roles range from $96k to $173k. Bloomberg's math would mean an additional ~$40k on an average of $123k. In Seattle, the range for entry-level is $89k to $159k. This is compared to an average of $45k for all occupations at the entry level in Seattle.
Brazil set a monthly export record in April thanks to the Iran war, as high oil prices bolstered the South American country’s coffers. Exports totaled $34.15 billion on the month, a 14.3% increase from a year prior and the highest such figure in data going back to 1997. Brazil’s trade surplus rose 37.5% in the same period, hitting $10.5 billion.
The economic shockwaves of the Iran war have spread beyond the average American consumer cursing under their breath at the pump. Now the businesses that would have pocketed that additional dollar or more being spent on each gallon of gas are sounding the alarm. US gas prices, at around $4.56 a gallon on average, are at their highest levels since July 2022, according to data from the American Automobile Association. In a country where affordability was already the watchword when the US and Israel attacked Iran, it was only a matter of time before the pain spread. Executives across retail, restaurants and packaged goods are increasingly worried about US shoppers with tighter budgets. Meanwhile, economists warn the disruptions from the war could lead to higher prices for a wider range of goods—including food.
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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