Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
A Federal Reserve on hold means there’s little prospect of mortgage rates dropping this year, according to TD Securities economists, who updated their US housing outlook this week. And that means a largely stagnant property market, they cautioned. The bank sees 30-year mortgage rates ending this year around 6.15%, down slightly from about 6.36% as of last week’s Freddie Mac reading. Looking at mortgage payments as a percent of income, “by this measure, homes have not been this unaffordable for this long since the 1980s,” Eli Nir, Oscar Munoz and rates strategist Molly Brooks wrote in a note Tuesday.
Many homeowners are hesitating to embark on major home-improvement projects, citing concerns over economic uncertainty, housing affordability, rising fuel costs, increasing mortgage rates and layoffs, said Richard McPhail, chief financial officer of Home Depot. While some continue spending on smaller upgrades like outdoor products and paint, there's notable reluctance toward larger investments such as flooring, lighting and lumber projects. The retailer, which reported a 0.6% increase in first-quarter comparable sales, continues to intensify its focus on contractors, roofers and the other professionals who now generate about half of Home Depot's revenue. https://buff.ly/IhRf5OC
Yields on government bonds have surged globally in recent weeks as the jump in energy prices caused by the war adds to inflation fears, pushing investors to bet central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will raise interest rates. Mounting government deficits also are prompting investors to demand greater compensation to own longer-maturity debt.
Local market conditions are having a key impact on apartment performance across the country, according to a RealPage analysis of REIT earnings commentary. Some operators are pointing to a divergence between coastal markets, which are facing supply constraints, and Sun Belt markets, which are still absorbing new units. https://buff.ly/AQIpPyy
Retail remains the tightest major commercial real estate sector nationally, with a vacancy rate of just 4.4%, according to a National Association of REALTORS®' analysis. Markets like Bozeman, Mont.; Madison, Wis.; and Raleigh, N.C., continue to face very limited retail space availability, reflecting strong demand and constrained supply. Meanwhile, metros such as Bloomington, Ill.; Pueblo, Colo.; and Buffalo, N.Y., offer relatively more available retail space for leasing activity. https://buff.ly/IRTAu6X
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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