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Volume 26, Number 1
May 20, 2018
The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster
Forecast and Commentary by Dick Conway and Doug Pedersen

Newspaper Quotes

Reporters from newspapers, television, and radio regularly ask us our views on current economic developments and issues in the Puget Sound region. Here are a few examples from local newspapers:

“For sanity and clarity in what seems an impossible housing market, I turn again to economic forecasters Dick Conway and Doug Pedersen, whose regional outlook is used by lots of smart people. Conway and Pedersen have been almost alone in examining the true cost of housing based, not on sticker shock, but real income…Their premise, shown in the data, is that increases in home prices have been more than offset by increases in incomes and a relative decline interest rates compared to, say, 20 years ago. ‘As a result,’ they write, ‘homes are more affordable today—and by a wide margin—than they were in 1990…’ ”
—“More proof: Area's homes are not all that expensive” The Seattle Times, June 14, 1999

“Job loss estimates for 2001 nearly doubled, from 35,000 to 65,000, in large part because of the limited nature of the initial estimate, economists say…‘When you have a downturn, a lot of the job losses occur in small firms because small firms tend to be more vulnerable,’ said Dick Conway, co-author of The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster…Conway also theorized that the demise of small dot-com enterprises around the Puget Sound may have skewed the jobs data…And King County businesses are losing many of those jobs, since the (Puget Sound) region is home to 60 percent of the state’s economic activity, Conway says.”
—"No quick recovery for state economy" Seattle Post-Intelligencer, February 9, 2002

“A good indicator of future economic conditions in the Puget Sound area turned sharply negative in the first quarter…The Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators, compiled by regional economists Dick Conway and Doug Pedersen, dropped 1.6 percent in the first quarter (1999). The index has a strong track record of predicting changes in the economy.
—"The Newsletter" The Seattle Times, June 10, 1999

Taking the state's temperature
Puget Sound Business Journal, December 30, 2005

Jobs multiply as pace of growth quickens
Puget Sound Business Journal, December 30, 2005

Retail sales suggest state economy is waking up
Puget Sound Business Journal, May 7, 2004

Economists upbeat on Seattle
Seattle Post-Intelligencer, January 9, 2004

Stock options lose luster, but likely to survive
Puget Sound Business Journal, July 26, 2002

The wealth-effect…in reverse
Seattle Post-Intelligencer, January 22, 2001

Area firms feel the heat amid soaring energy costs
Seattle Post-Intelligencer, September 20, 2000